Rising world beef supply to lower beef export prices
World beef supply is expected to rise as increased production in Australia and Brazil outweigh a small decline in United States beef production:
- Australia is the world’s third largest beef exporter. As a result, the substantial increase in Australian beef production will contribute to higher global beef supply.
- Brazil’s beef production and exports are expected to increase slightly in 2023–24. Over the last decade, the volume of Brazilian beef available for export has increased significantly. Growing Chinese import demand, a strengthening Sino-Brazilian trade relationship, and a persistent depreciation of the Brazilian real has led to strong growth in export returns. This has incentivised more Brazilian beef to be exported rather than sold domestically, increasing global supply.
- United States beef production is expected fall in 2023–24 but remain historically high. The US herd rebuilding cycle is now expected to start in late 2024 or early 2025; this is expected to start tightening global beef supply from late 2023 as US slaughter rates start to fall. Herd destocking continues as parts of the central United States remain very dry. Although slaughter numbers have started to fall, this is most likely attributable to a smaller herd size. The proportion of female cattle in feedlots and being slaughtered remains high, signalling that the US herd remains in a destocking phase.
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